Ukraine: what you don’t know may kill us all.

I’ve been paying attention daily to the Ukraine war. I spend most of my time examining the history, geopolitics, economics, governmental responses, legal issues and the myriad of numbers in all these realms that feed a complex equation of our world. There is a lot to know. It’s confusing. There are vastly differing perspectives as well as muddled facts. However, if you examine the situation from all the angles, eventually you do get a sense of the reality and closer to truth.

Oddly enough, as in many studies, the more someone actually knows about a thing the more they know that they don’t know. I’m certain of two aspects. One is that I’ve processed more data on the Ukraine situation than most people I know. In other words people reading this might think my positions on the Ukraine conflict are wrong, and they might be right on that, but it is highly unlikely that they have processed more data than I on this topic. The second thing I am certain of is that it’s dangerous for the world if the American people don’t pay more attention to what our government is doing.

There are a few people I know who are clearly paying as much or more attention than me, many starting from a point of deeper understanding. I highly respect their opinions. I learn from them. In general, those that have paid the most attention seem to draw similar perspectives.

Regardless of knowledge, the best conversations on this topic that I have are the ones where we ask questions, and furthermore, answer with uncertainty. “I don’t know but…” Then we offer what we have heard from others examining the situation, what we relate from similar examples from the past, or we dive into probable analysis and more research. In other words having conversations with the goal of understanding better rather than winning. Even in my most confident analyses, I still attach a probability to it.

I’ve come to take a few positions at this point that go against the grain in the US. These positions offer no benefit for me in having them. Quite the opposite. I am clearly treated quite worse for having them and sharing them. So why hold them? Obviously I come to these positions because I feel they are formed of more accurate analysis of greater amounts of info. While there are plenty in the world who hold jobs to analyze info on this, those jobs are usually constrained to form useful narratives. In that regard there are therefore very few, mostly individual researchers, that can share objectively.

I am able to share mostly objectively. I say mostly because I still am considering as I write, my audience. Which is mostly friends, family and the comrades and acquaintances I’ve had the pleasure to meet over the years. To some degree maybe a greater audience if it finds it’s way out of the censors of social media. I write knowing also that the censors will only allow so much or that I may face repression. Therefore my analysis is skewed towards not further alienating an audience that I assume is majority against my positions.

I have another bias. I want people to join together in changing things. Specific things. Some very immediate things. I want to say to my friends, I need to interrupt what you are doing now because this needs an immediate response. We need to work together in interrupting others because this needs an immediate response. Most tend to think if something is that important they would hear about it from the people they listen to already. Surely Bernie Sanders or Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or Amy Goodman would be raising the alarm. Unfortunately, they are not.

Others are raising the alarm, I am one of many. Organizations like Black Alliance for Peace, United National Antiwar Committee, Code Pink, Vets for Peace, Freedom Road Socialist Organization, Black Is Back Coalition, Women In Struggle, Leonard Peltier Defense Committee, Socialist Unity Party, Leonard Peltier Defense Committee, Workers World Party and more! There are great journalists that are highly critical as well such as the people of the Greyzone, Antimperialista, Black Agenda Report, Antiwar.com and more. Also academics such as Noam Chomsky and John Mearshimer to only list two. The best people on the issue are earnestly folks found on fairly small youtube shows and blogs such as the Duran and MoonOfAlabama but now we are seeing criticism in shows like Joe Rogan and Tucker Carlson. The biggest politicians to take a stand is Tulsi Gabbard, Marjorie Taylor Greene and recently Trump! It’s discouraging that the anti imperialist, antiwar, antiglobalization and socialist left that showed such strength in the late 90s and early 2000s has been all but destroyed and a billionaire like Trump steps in to fill that role.

We need to take back up the antiglobalization movement.

1. No US weapons or money without a return to negotiations!

Ukraine’s President Zelensky recently made a Presidential decree saying that negotiations with Putin were impossible. Putin on the other hand has said that it supports serious negotiations. Biden has presently not committed to negotiations and there is increasingly reliable information that previous negotiations in March were nearly done but were stopped by Boris Johnson, former prime minister of the United Kingdom, who wouldn’t have scuttled the deal without the US approving doing so. The G20 is happening November 15-16th and both Putin and Biden will be there along with many powerful leaders. If there is a push now in the US to pressure Biden to negotiate then it may happen. 

2. New nuclear disarmament treaties!

The US is responsible for scrapping several nuclear arms treaties with Russia in recent years. Considering that the US and Russia control 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons, enough to destroy the world many times over and that there is no winnable nuclear war, it is well past time we get rid of them. This was a sensible position during the Reagan administration that came after decades of activists around the world worked towards creating a movement demanding an end to nuclear weapons. We need to revitalize this movement straight away. The danger is too great!

3. End all illegal sanctions!

Ending all illegal sanctions is a position in line with the rest of the world who have come to agree that the only legal sanctions under international law come from the UN. The world is facing economic, environmental and supply downturns and the people in countries under US sanctions suffer much more because of it which hurts not just them but everyone. As things get worse people flee a sanctioned country causing burdens on their neighbors. Sanctions also hurt supply of commodities at a time when those are strained. Plus it affects countries ability to adequately deal with health issues that may spread to other areas. Finally, these sanctions often boomerang against the countries implementing the sanctions and often hurt the cause they are there supposedly for, such as strengthening a government the US doesn’t like rather than hurting them.

4. Negotiate a new European Security Agreement with Russia that replaces NATO.

The US has many bases in Europe as well as military equipment because we are the primary funder and securer of NATO. During a time of profound economic and social problems it seems like a worthwhile moment to take Russia up on its offer at negotiating a new security agreement with Europe. Rather than an arms race, we should demand arms reduction treaties. This puts diplomacy first, saves lives, saves money, can create innovative modern technical solutions to security that can have all parties sleep well at night without worry for their kids future. The US military industrial complex isn’t going to disappear overnight but we should push it to transform towards something much better. Recently NASA nudged an asteroid, I imagine there is need for much in efforts such as this in a future for security of the world. Perhaps many other things as well. When I think of how we are already on an upward climb in an arms race between all the major powers of the world, a race that can only lead to waste and catastrophe, I can also imagine that it’s a choice that takes away from other opportunities that are significant, technically challenging but of incredible usefulness. A new security agreement may be the most important choice for 100 years in terms of defining a new direction and saving lives.

5. Support a multipolar world, international law and diplomacy.

The US must end it’s ideas of a US based global hegemonic order and fall in agreement with the multipolar world that is already here. It is time to examine the US empire, understand the reality of its decline, destroy the elements within that endanger peace and aim our declining resources towards internal and social development that we have been avoiding. This will be the last consumer society but may be the beginning of a balanced society and a nation that can find a renewed spirit that isn’t built by cheap goods from developing countries but rather our own hands. A people’s foreign policy is what is needed and demanding such is our right. We must rip away the idea that supporting the US foreign policy of exploitation and military intervention for international finance is patriotic, it is not. 

6. Russia and China normalization.

The US government and media has fomented quite significant hate for Russia and China among most people in the US. It is a dangerous situation for our government to treat these other governments as enemies. Is that what the people in the US want? Do we want to hate Putin and Xi? Do we want to demonize their government? Do we want to have sanctions, arms races, cold war mentality and more divide the world? I don’t. I think it is a foolish path that benefits only the worst elements of our US power elite and hurts regular people here and around the world. It is time that we stand against the hate built mostly on half truths and lies. Call out the Russophobic and Sinophobic racism that is rampant in the US today. Any problems that we share can be dealt with in diplomacy and peace. We need more sister city relationships and friendship caravans. We need direct people to people diplomacy and cultural exchange. We need to say no to all the aggression coming from the US government and escalation.

Conclusion.

The points I made above may seem controversial to many people but to me they are extremely moderate. I haven’t thoroughly explained the underpinnings of my perspective. Obviously, I don’t support the US proxy war in Ukraine against Russia. In fact, I basically consider the broad decisions of Russia to be legitimate, even arguably lawful by international law. You could ask me how on earth I came to that position and we can have a discussion, but that’s not even a very pertinent issue for the points above.

What matters for the points above is my understanding that the US is making things worse for Ukrainians and worse for world peace and justice. That US foreign policy is completely captured by a powerful internationally rich elite that use our foreign policy to the benefit of international finance, the military industrial complex and international corporations and at the expense of Americans, Ukrainians, Russians and just about everyone else. That the idea that the US finally took the good side in a conflict and that this time, not like in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya, that this time our weapons and support will bring good things to Ukraine, is a fantasy. The US is in Ukraine to benefit US corporations, the military industrial complex, international finance and to weaken their rivals. Thousands of Ukrainians would now be alive, the war would have been over long ago and Ukraine would be in a better position today had the US not sent them weapons.

The most controversial thing to say is that Russia is winning and will win against Ukraine. Why this is controversial considering that Russia is a country with four times the population, a substantially larger more prosperous economy and is the second largest weapons seller next to the US in the world is hard for me to understand other than that all the US and western media paints the completely opposite narrative. The myth making that little Ukraine, with it’s tiny economy, notorious corruption and society divided for the past 8 years in a civil war, that it could beat Russia and the six million rebel Ukrainians in the Donbas who absolutely hate the Ukrainian government, is just that, a myth.

Ukraine never stood a chance. The western weapons, training and “intelligence” isn’t enough either. The gains of Ukraine on the battlefield in terms of land gained is at the expense of soldiers and equipment while Russians tactically fall back preserving their own soldiers and equipment. Till now Russia had limited itself greatly to using only 15-20% of it’s armed forces. Now with up to 300,000 more troops coming in, Russia is using the material and numerical advantage it always has had. Meanwhile Ukraine has about used up it’s forces and equipment. That’s why Zelensky is always pleading for more weapons and money.

Russians are destroying the Ukrainian army at about a 10 dead Ukrainians for every dead Russian ratio. That’s how it goes when Russia has ten times the shells, shooting much longer distances, with way more missiles, more tanks, control over the air, better trained soldiers who are better rested and more. It’s highly likely that Russia will have taken fully over it’s newly annexed areas before the end of the year. The only real question is whether or not it will continue. And that depends on whether Ukraine is ready to surrender.

There is a strong chance for more incredible stupidity from the US as Ukraine loses. Like when the US blew up Nordstream 1 & 2 in an act of terrorism and industrial sabotage against Russia but and the EU. If you don’t know that the US were the terrorists in that scenario and the implications, that’s because the media basically went silent. But since they did that and have so far mostly gotten away with it, although the majority of the world understands the US was responsible, the burdensome question becomes what will they try next? How cavalier will the US become in their unchallenged might? Will the US decide to escalate with some sort of new false flag? 

This gibberish about Russia threatening using a tactical nuke in Ukraine is one possible set up. Will the US make it become a reality by using a tactical nuke in Ukraine and blaming Russia? That we aren’t being held responsible for Nordstream leaves too many neocons in the White House thinking we can do it and get away blaming Russia. That opens doors for a missile attack on Moscow in an attempt to destroy the Russian government. That would lead to nuclear war and it would be the US who started it, not that it matters who started the end of the world.

I’m sure that sounds completely backwards to most people. Unfortunately, it’s not. The idea of Russia using a nuke in Ukraine is ridiculous, they never threatened to do so, there is no reason to do so, the only talk about this is coming from the west. All this talk is followed with commitments to attack back with conventional weapons. NATO and the US entering the war. At some point that will be the only choice of the US. Either Ukraine commits unconditional surrender or the US directly involves itself in stopping it.

If these claims seem ridiculous to you, well feel free to leave comments and ask questions. I know that the new normal is to cancel the messenger against the orthodoxy, but I’m hoping that there are enough ready to think it through themselves. Let’s discuss. If you all can show me I’m wrong then great, that means we are one step closer to better understanding. If there are places you agree, share that too! The one thing is we must keep talking and moving forward. Even if you disagree on much, surely you could support a movement to get rid of nukes.