I’d like to broach one hypothesis for the US slow rolling a ceasefire in the UN while Netanyahu is declaring he will defy the US by saying Israeli forces will enter Rafah even if the entire world is against him. There is the possibility that Netanyahu starts it’s ground invasion of Rafah eventually, importantly after this floating pier is finished, and then the UN security council calls and emergency response pushing a ceasefire and then the US agrees. At which point Netanyahu defies the UN Security Council resolution and the US leads an international UN backed peacekeeping mission into Gaza to stop Israel. Then they actually fiercely standoff, or even clash a little, with Israel shooting towards the UN Mission then the US striking them and moving in forces.
Why on earth? Well, Netanyahu would be seen as fully the tough guy who stood up to the whole world as he says he would. Maybe even he is captured by the US for attacking the UN Peacekeepers/ US troops and taken to the US, even Guantanamo, for trial. The Israeli military is forced to hold the ceasefire, pushed out of Gaza to the 1967 borders, along with the Israeli settlers. The US forces a new government in Israel and installs one in Palestine, with elections to come.
Then suddenly Netanyahu is an Israeli hero, the Israeli’s can claim new grievances that they’re now under occupation plus they can blame Netanyahu for the atrocities plus whomever else the US rounds up to take the blame, knowing they’re all seen as heroes in Israel and Guantanamo becomes a minimum security spa resort, kept out of the eyes of the public of course.
Keep in mind Israel gets to offload its security costs at this point on the US who builds a base with 30,000 troops, not in Israel, but in Palestine. For a time there is a Korean War style ceasefire and demarcation which means Israel is kept from attack. Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel and everyone is happy especially the Palestinians, who have the Israeli boot off their neck for good as they find themselves in a Haiti style normal impoverishment instead.
BTW: Gaza & Rafah are rubble by this time already when the cavalry comes running in. The “new” Palestinian State, recognized at the UN, is totally controlled by the US and occupied militarily but the US forces aren’t brainwashed to shoot Palestinians for sport like the Israelis. Eventually the new Palestinian State’s government is shackled the proper way, with IMF loans and brutal privatization Chicago School neoliberalism. Eventually the Saudis are building the new coastal properties, but the Israelis eventually start moving in once the dust settles. And the Palestinians get jobs serving Arab, Israeli and US elite cocktails on the beach.
And Biden? Oh he puts on the shades and drops a mission accomplished banner on the deck of a US aircraft carrier while licking an ice cream cone all before the November election. Maybe he even strolls on shore passing out ice cream cones to the Palestinian children that aren’t dead yet. He succeeds in allowing Israel to destroy Gaza and then is the hero who saves the few Palestinians who are still alive. It’s what Biden would refer to as a “Win Win” as he thumbs his nose at Xi Jinping.
I was betting that Biden would step aside at the DNC to allow the Dems to anoint the Retired Joint Chief General Mark Milley to run instead. While I still suggest you get your bets in on that implausible scenario, it could be that in this case he stays in the race. I don’t particularly care about this election, which is the least important in my life. It can be fun to make predictions on what surprises they have in store for us in the newest season of our election reality tv series but don’t try and convince me that this Ultimate Smackdown isn’t mostly scripted.
Remember, also the house always wins. That’s why it’s always the least important election, not most important. Every election more money is spent and more media is controlled. My vote and my voice therefore has less importance than it did in the election before. I’m not depressed by knowing this. I’ll still give it a superfluous ballot check. The real world is what it is. While elections don’t currently play much of a role in changing real power and bad governance, I’m gonna engage in this reality in other more effective ways. My vote is the most minor of strategic matters.
With Hamas of course, the US rounds them all up, but doesn’t destroy all of them, just throws a huge number of them in Guantanamo as well (the more torturous side). Eventually after a bit, once they’ve been shat on quite a bit and some new Palestinian political formations are given time to build, Hamas is allowed to enter elections. Kept to a Parliamentary slim majority in some weak government the US builds. They’ll be frustrated for years by this style of fake democracy just like all us regular Americans who are powerless in our own. Although they’ll be told, like we are, to forever chase after a moving goal line with each election “totally real” and “the most important ever.” Within a generation Hamas’ revolutionary dreams will be twisted to mean their poor state’s neoliberal reality.
I left out some details. In the heat of it all we may see a nuke sink our old Eisenhower Aircraft Carrier that’s about to be decommissioned anyway, which will be blamed on Putin. We may see Hezbollah & Syria get attacked. We may see Iran get nuked. Maybe we nuke North Korea for an “October Surprise” after they get blamed for nuking South Korea. Maybe Israel nukes Russia for some reason. I mean… if we’re gonna put the leash on Israel anyway and leave them in the doghouse for timeout, we might as well have them instigating a whole bunch more really fucked up shit that the US is too chicken shit to do directly without some half-assed implausible deniability cover story.
Don’t think I’m denigrating Israel’s power by saying we’re gonna put a leash on them. Keep in mind if aliens came to Earth and they saw me walking my dog, it’d be reasonable for them to assume the being leading me forward, that I am always taking pictures of, that I work to feed, that I always tell is the most handsome dog, who’s shit I pick up, is actually the one in charge. And I don’t know if I disagree.
So what do you think?
Relieved that we get spared the Orange Man winning in the “totally real” & “most important election ever”? Cool. I’m digging a bomb shelter.
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